Melissa J. Perenson, PC World
Five years ago, just about any flat-panel television could induce oohs and aahs, and high-definition was a rarity. Today, although flat-panel HDTVs are in only 25 percent of American households, they're common enough that the gee-whiz factor is gone. So where do HDTVs go from here?
Improvements in picture sharpness and advances in screen size are likely to be gradual. "It's kind of like computers: If you wait around, there will always be something better around the corner," says DisplaySearch HDTV analyst Paul Gagnon.
In this post-iPhone world, where industrial design is king, TV manufacturers are paying particular attention to the look and feel of their products and to integrating software with hardware.
Just as cell phones, digital cameras, and laptops now come in colored packages, TVs too are moving beyond basic black. Manufacturers are also taking a cue from the sleek details found on smaller products. LG Electronics, for example, recently introduced TV sets with color and style tweaks. The 32-inch LG40 features such accents as a curved pedestal and a red front-drop bezel; the back of the LG60 is red, too, and you can see a flash of color peeking through the side and front.
Also taking flight this year: televisions that connect to your home network so you can tap into its content. Last year Hewlett-Packard and Sony were at the fore of this trend, and Pioneer offered some sets that comply with the Digital Living Network Alliance certification (an assurance that they'll be able to interact with other DLNA devices such as PCs, gaming systems, and storage devices that are on your home network). HP is installing in all of its 2008 models a Windows Media Center Extender, which lets you access multimedia on your PC via a home network. Later this year Sony will add a DMeX (Digital Media Extender) option to its sets, allowing them to interact with DLNA-compliant networks.
Internet connectivity comes in for a boost, as well. At the Consumer Electronics Show in January, Sharp introduced models with its Aquos Net service (for receiving customized Web-based content); Panasonic unveiled its VieraCast service (for watching YouTube videos and accessing photos via Google's Picasa photo-sharing site); and Samsung showed TVs that could receive an RSS newsfeed powered by USA Today. All are expected to be released sometime this year.
As with all new bells and whistles, some of these developments are likely to be here today and gone tomorrow. The challenge for manufacturers is to find the right balance between next-gen features and price in a competitive market.
"For now, they're just testing the waters," observes DisplaySearch's Gagnon. "I think a lot of manufacturers are hesitant to build in features that they're not sure will take off." The downside of such a misstep is obvious: Increasing the prices of televisions to add a new feature that no one uses is a waste of money for both manufacturers and consumers.
LCD and Plasma: Future Tech Now
Resolution remains a big area of competition among high-def-TV manufacturers. In previous years the standard resolution was 720p. This year the scale tips in favor of 1080p, the maximum resolution for HDTV. Among LCDs, which hold a slight edge in brightness over plasma, most 720p sets sold this year will be smaller-screen models (37 inches and under) selling at bargain prices. Among plasma TVs, known for their high-contrast images on massive screens, you'll have more 1080p choices than ever. By next year, this shift in resolution for plasma should be mostly complete; Pioneer, for one, says it will have eliminated 720p sets from its lineup by 2009. For the foreseeable future, however, LCD models will continue to offer 720p at smaller, entry-level screen sizes (20 to 32 inches), which don't benefit as much from 1080p.
Last year a TV with such technology cost $500 to $600 more than one without it, but this year that feature should add only $200 to $300 to the price, explains Tim Alessi, LG product development director. By next year, Alessi believes, the additional cost will be minor or nonexistent.
Now that 120-Hz technology is becoming more mainstream, LCD TV makers can focus on other potential breakthroughs, such as adding LED backlights to less-expensive models. Also introduced last year (by Samsung), LED backlights can offer a wider range of colors and higher contrast. Sound pioneer Dolby is among the companies exploring this technology. Currently, LED-backlit displays remain a rarity, limited to one or two premium models per year. DisplaySearch's Gagnon doesn't expect to see them any more often in the next year or two, but he does believe that, over time, their pricing and availability will improve.
Recently, plasma-television manufacturers have provided some glimpses into the future, as well. For instance, at the Consumer Electronics Show in January, Pioneer showcased two intriguing concept technologies: "absolute black" and very thin plasma displays.
"Absolute black" refers to the color of the set's screen before any image appears on it; all television panels emit some light, making the base screen more of a dark gray. "If we can't start with a completely black canvas, all of the colors will seem washed out or will look faded," explains Paul Meyhoefer, vice president of Pioneer's marketing and product planning for plasma displays. With the new technology, "you can go into a pitch-black room, and you will only see the image, not the TV or any other light emitting from the TV. Because we can now create the black, we can create a lot more color, and a lot more depth and dimension in color."
Pioneer also showed a prototype plasma technology that produces a display measuring 9mm (or 0.35 inch) thick (sans TV tuner). "It's basically the thickness of the glass," notes Meyhoefer. "Our ultimate goal is to take both technologies and integrate them into an ultrathin design concept."
OLED: Still Too Pricey
After what seemed like years of hype, OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) display technology has finally become a large-screen reality: At CES Sony introduced the first OLED TV aimed at consumers. The 11-inch XEL-1 offers brilliant colors and high-contrast images in a superthin panel (only 3 millimeters thick), but at $2500 it's less of a mainstream consumer breakthrough than a proof of concept. Sony says it intends to release larger displays next year.
Other manufacturers are keeping an eye on OLED, but only Samsung is speaking publicly about its future plans. The company showed two prototype OLED displays at CES, one 14 inches and the other 31 inches; however, like other manufacturers, Samsung doesn't expect to bring OLED displays to market until at least 2009, as the models become cheaper to produce.
For many vendors, OLED remains on the periphery. "It's still kind of a novelty," says LG's Alessi. DisplaySearch's Gagnon predicts that the technology probably won't reach its prime for another three or four years.
When to Buy
If you're in the market for a high-definition TV now, none of the developments slated to come this year and later is a reason to hold off. Better design, sound, and resolution will all be welcome improvements, but when they finally arrive they are unlikely to make you regret purchasing a set today. And don't let the distant glimmer of lower prices hold you back, either: According to both IDC and DisplaySearch, HDTV prices won't fall as quickly this year as they have in the past.
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